Friday, April 21, 2000

Nothing clear as LSC, ASC set for finales
By Al Pickett

I knew I should have paid more attention in my high school trigonometry class.

Computations, permutations and probabilities may be as important as batting averages and earned run averages for local college baseball fans this weekend.

The Lone Star Conference and American Southwest Conference regular-season baseball schedules conclude this weekend, and figuring out who will advance to the league’s postseason tournaments is about as simple as trigonometry (and I never did understand it).

Things are relatively clear-cut in the Lone Star Conference South Division where preseason favorite Abilene Christian University has itself backed into a corner after losing three out of four games last weekend to Tarleton State.

The Texans lead the LSC South with an 11-5 record. Eastern New Mexico is second at 9-5, and ACU and Texas A&M-Kingsville are tied for third at 9-7. Eastern New Mexico had a pair of rainouts, which is why the Greyhounds have played two fewer games than Tarleton or ACU.

The Wildcats play at Eastern New Mexico in a four-game series today and Saturday in Portales, N.M., while Tarleton State faces Cameron in a four-game series in Lawton, Okla.

ACU must win at least three of four games from Eastern New Mexico this weekend to have a shot at making the LSC Post-Season Tournament, a four-team event that includes the top two teams from the South and North divisions. If the Wildcats win just three of four, they need A&M-Kingsville to lose at least once this weekend against West Texas A&M.

Now, that’s fairly easy to understand, right?

The American Southwest Conference also takes two teams from each division to its postseason tournament, but figuring out which two will give you a bigger headache than last Monday’s tax deadline.

With just three games remaining on the weekend schedule for each team — except McMurry, which has already concluded its regular season — six of the seven teams still have a shot at earning one of the two postseason tournament berths.

“Going into last weekend, we said we needed to win six a row,” Hardin-Simmons University coach Steve Coleman said. “We’re halfway there.”

The Cowboys stunned McMurry University last weekend, sweeping all three games from the Indians at McMurry’s Driggers Field.

That put HSU in the driver’s seat going into the final weekend of the season. But the Cowboys are not buckled in. There are still plenty of scenarios that could happen.

If you look at the graphic on Page 1B, you will see those possibilities. Basically, when the dust clears Saturday night, the two teams with the best winning percentages will qualify for the ASC tournament.

Like the LSC South, there is an additional complication in the ASC West because of a rainout. Hardin-Simmons and Sul Ross State have played one fewer game than everyone else because one of their games was rained out in Abilene earlier this season.

If you’re looking for the simple answer for the two local teams, here it is:

If Hardin-Simmons sweeps all three from Mary Hardin-Baylor this weekend at HSU’s Hunter Field, the Cowboys are not only in but will also host the ASC tournament.

If HSU wins two out of three, the Cowboys are in and will still host the tournament unless Schreiner College wins all three at Sul Ross State.

McMurry must sit and wait. The Indians’ only hope is a complicated multiple tie that would somehow put them in.

Now, if you really want to make things confusing, try this one:

If Mary Hardin-Baylor wins two out of three from Hardin-Simmons, Sul Ross State takes two out of three from Schreiner and Howard Payne sweeps last-place Concordia-Austin, HSU would be the champion with a 10-7 record (.588 winning percentage). But under that scenario, Schreiner, McMurry, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Howard Payne would all be 10-8 (.556 winning percentage).

So who goes if there is a four-way tie for second?

“I don’t have a clue,” Coleman said.

He did, however, produce a copy of the league rules that say multiple ties are broken by the team with the most wins collectively against the other teams in the tie. If that doesn’t work, the league will then take individual teams’ records against the other conference opponents in descending order, starting with the top-seeded team.

Coaches love to tell their players to worry about only the things they can control. In the American Southwest Conference this weekend, there is plenty going on out of everyone’s control.

No one knows that better than Lee Driggers and his McMurry Indians, who have to sit and wait, hoping for a miracle.

At least Coleman and his HSU Cowboys and Britt Bonneau and his ACU Wildcats know they still can control their fates by winning on the field this weekend.

Contact sports editor Al Pickett at 676-6772 or picketta@abinews.com. We are on the Web at http://sports.texnews.com.