Reporter-News Archives

Saturday, October 10, 1998

GOP wants to fill in seats in the Texas House of Representatives

By ANNA M.TINSLEY

Scripps Howard Austin Bureau

AUSTIN -- Republicans hope to fill 20 of the Texas House seats up for re-election Nov. 3 with members of their party.

But they'd settle for putting Republicans in just eight of those seats -- which would give them a majority in the Texas House for the first time in more than 120 years.

Democrats say they are pulling out all the stops to keep that from happening.

"This is a battle we've got going on," said Molly Beth Malcolm, Democratic Party chairwoman and former Republican. "Republicans are dreaming. They're not going to take over the House."

Early voting starts Oct. 19 and runs through Oct. 30.

Political analysts say Republicans have their best chance ever to control the House and maintain their majority in the Senate. The odds are against Democrats, analysts say, for these reasons:

-- Gov. George W. Bush, who polls show to be one of the state's most popular governors ever, is at the top of the Republican ticket and could boost GOP turnout statewide.

-- The President Clinton/Monica Lewinsky scandal and impeachment inquiry could cause Democrats in Texas and nationwide to stay away from the polls.

"All this puts Republicans in the driver's seat," said Allan Saxe, an associate political science professor at the University of Texas in Arlington. "They sense they have a chance of grabbing both chambers of the Legislature for the first time in more than 100 years.

"And they have a better than outside chance," he said.

How they'll do it, though, is being kept top secret. Republican officials are tight-lipped about their approach, other than to say they're targeting 20 House seats that are open or held by Democrats. Picking up just eight of those would give them the majority.

Democratic leaders are equally secretive about their methods to retain majority in the House and regain majority in the Senate.

Democrats hold an 82-68 majority in the House; Republicans hold a 17-14 majority in the Senate.

"Our No. 1 goal is to have a majority in the Legislature next year," said Robert Black, spokesman for the Texas Republican Party. "We believe that's possible, considering the dynamics going on in the state and at the national level."

Republicans believe Bush -- rather than his underdog Democratic challenger Garry Mauro -- will be a big draw in getting voters to the polls.

"Our ticket is led by an extremely popular governor," Black said. "Then look at what's going on at the national level. The leadership at the top of the Democratic Party nationally has been disgraced ... and that has the potential to have a demoralizing effect on voter turnout."

Saxe said if Democrats stay away from the polls, that will give a boost to all Republican candidates on the ballot.

Democrat Malcolm said Republicans are hoping that voter turnout is low because of Clinton.

"That's how they want it to be," she said. "I think it's very sad that Republicans are busy focusing on partisanship and hoping for a low turnout rather than talking about issues that are important -- strengthening public education and passing the patient protection act.

"Republicans want to focus on scandal because they don't have any issues and they hope to turn voters off and keep them at home," Malcolm said.

She said a Republican majority "would be a nightmare on Main Street" and the Legislature would be in constant gridlock.

Black said Republicans want to bring new leadership, not partisanship, to the House. And he said Republican leadership would mean a more conservative approach to legislation.

Malcolm said Democrats are determined to not give up the majority in the House and are trying to take back the Senate this November.

"It's not over for Democrats," Saxe said. "They are trying to keep their spirits up and fight the good fight. Things may turn around in a month."

But to turn things around, Democratic candidates must have a game plan, said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant who works with members of both parties.

"Clinton is trying to save his own skin and not everything he's doing is in all Democrats' best interests," Miller said. "What each candidate must do is keep distance from the presidential situation.

"They must focus on issues, keep voters focused on issues," he said. "They've got to make it candidate to candidate. If they do it, the House could remain narrowly Democratic. If it turns into a very bad year for them, it will be a big Republican sweep."

Scripps Howard Austin Bureau reporter Anna M. Tinsley can be reached at (512) 326-2793 or by e-mail at tinsleya@scripps.com.