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Wednesday, July 9, 1997

NFC Team Rankings & Why

By GARY MORRIS / Guest Columnist

In one of my earlier articles, (http://www.texnews.com/cowboys/gary060997.html), I posted my early predictions, I said the top 4 teams in the NFC would again be:

1. Dallas 14-2

2. Green Bay 13-3

3. Carolina 12-4

4. S.Fran 10-6

Well, I am sticking with that order and here is the substance to go with the fluff:

1. Dallas:

LAST YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Last year Dallas showed why it has the heart of a Champion. The reasons why they were true champions are listed below under the weaknesses.

LAST YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

First, Dallas starts off the season wondering if Deion can learn how to be a good Flanker, when it takes most receivers many years to develop into just "good" in the NFL. Before the season was half over, Dallas should have known it was too much to ask of someone even if they are as talented as Deion.

Second, Dallas starts the season without thier best SplitEnd receiver, Michael Irvin for the first 5 games.

Third, they hold out the Offensive Line from pre-season games because Mark Tuinei gets hurt and so the O-Line takes 5 games into the season to get into "pounding" shape.

Fourth, they get EVERY TightEnd they have injured for the season. Kendall Watkins is out completely, while Eric Bjornson plays hurt the whole season.

Fifth, they loose Leon Lett during the stretch run.

Sixth, they have their All-Pro Running Back, trying to cut on ankles that most people wouldn't even try to walk on.

And Guess what, the 'Boys still won the Division even with all of those problems.

THIS YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

This year our 'Boys will have Anthony Miller instead of Deion at Flanker.

They will have Michael Irvin the whole season, ( yes, Michael WILL be playing this season, even the dumbest people in the world wouldn't walk away from 5 million dollars, and Michael is no dummy!)

I think this Off-Season the conditioning coach has gotten the whole team in better condition, so maybe the O-Line will start off in "Pounding" shape.

Next they are healthy at tightend with both Watkins and Bjornson back and they picked up David LaFleur in the Draft, and with his physical tools, he just might be able to re-define the tightend position.

THIS YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

The ability to stop the run is the Cowboys biggest concern. They will try to do it with numbers this year keeping 10 or 11 Defensive Lineman. By continually shuttling in fresh bodies, they expect to wear down the other team and be able to slow down their attack in the fourth quarter. This is classic Jimmy Johnson Defense. We have not had a "really good" run stopper since Russell Maryland left.

Tony Casillas is probably the next best run stopper on the team and he may just be able to play about half the downs. So, this brings us to some of the real question marks on this team.

First, will Chad Hennings continue to develop as a run stopper? Next, will the two very promising young backups, Antonio Anderson and Darren Benson, get pushed around or hold ther own when backing up Hennings and Casillas?

From what I have seen of these two on film, I really think that

eventually they both can be of Leon Lett caliber, but they still have to improve each season and it takes lots of reps before you learn the "tricks" of the trade. Look how long Leon took. So in the mean time.....????

Weakside Linebacker is another weakness that might be solved if we sign Seth Joyner. Otherwise, teams will devise game plans to attack the weakside of the linebacking corps every game by again using alot of screens and draws to that side of the line.

All in all, it still should add up to a 14-2 season, looking back on last year when with a few breaks the 'Boys could of been 12-4 very easy, and I for one think this team is definately 2 games better than last year.

BUT.....Injuries will again play a huge role in the standings of every division.

2. Green Bay:

LAST YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Brett Favre. Almost 'Nuf said, but I'll continue. Favre had a great Q.B. Coach in Steve Mariucci who is now the Head Man, er...after "Common Policy" :-P (tounge in cheek), and now instead of Favre being error/interception prone when he is scrambling, he is at his best then.

The Packers did what they did without really being able to rely on any kind of starting receiver corps. They lost their best receiver, Robert Brooks early on and then lost their next best receiver, Antonio Freeman not much later.

Their next strength was an awesome defense. Not much more needs to be said about the number one defense in the NFL.

LAST YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

Last year their main weakness was having only an average running game.

THIS YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Brett Favre.

Next they will have their starting receivers back. They didn't loose much in Free Agency. They resigned their key guys like Gilbert Brown, Wayne Simmons and Frank Winters. Sure, they lost Desmond Howard, but they can win without him.

THIS YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

They still do not have a great running game. Also teams will have watched a lot of Packers Film the whole off-season, figuring out how to stop them on defense and how to emulate them on offense.

This year they should, once again, meet the Cowboys in the Playoffs, and once again the Cowboys should have home field advantage and that should be enough for them to kill all hopes the Packers may have for a repeat.

3. Carolina:

LAST YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Weak schedule. Just like the Forty-Niners they only have one strong team besides themselves in their division. That almost guarantees 6 wins right from the get-go.

LAST YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

Not alot of Stars on Offense. The offense was the classic case of over-achievers.

THIS YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

With Kevin Green on defense and then signing Ray Seales from the Steelers, the strong Defense will be even better. And on Offense, they picked up Ernie Mills from the Steelers and drafted a speedster rookie named Ray Caruth. Once again a sweep of the two games against the Forty-Niners.

THIS YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

Still not alot of stars on offense.

4. S.F. Forty-Niners:

LAST YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Weak Schedule. Also 6 games in the bag before they flip the first coin. Boy if only the 'Boys could play the RAMS twice, the SAINTS twice, and the FALCONS twice every year. No wonder the Forty Niners have such a long run of 10 plus wins in a season.

Any time you have Steve Young at Quarterback, you are going to have a great team. This guy is a winner. I guarantee you if Young was in the Green Bay game, he would have insisted they throw for the touchdown at least two of those plays that Gerbac put his tail between his legs and sheepishly handed the ball off like a good little sheep that does not question the boss. I think that game made the Niners decide not to try to re-sign Gerbac. A true rising star is at Split End and it is not J.J. Stokes. It is Terrell Owens.

LAST YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

Last year they did not have any semblance of a running game. Also J.J. Stokes appears to be a big bust. And most importantly, all of the NFL is starting to get the idea that the way the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys played them will still be the way to play them in the future. Bump and run and Nickel and Dime packages.

Since the stength of the "West Coast Offense" is the short passing game...then don't let Rice catch those 2-4 yard passes and dare them to beat you with the running game.

THIS YEAR'S STRENGTHS:

Weak Schedule. Also now they have a legimate chance at a strong running game. William Floyd may not ever be what he was, (and he never was "BAR NONE" since he seemed to always forget about MOOSE), but he should be good enough to spring newly aquired Garrison Hearst and with Kevin Gogan on the O-Line, and possibly Rod Woodson at corner, they should be able to still win another 4 or 5 in addition to the 6 givemes to have a nice 10-6 or 11-5 season.

THIS YEAR'S WEAKNESSES:

Again the team will rise and fall with the health of Steve Young. They have no real backup should he go down. Also, teams will continue to play Nickel and Dime packages to make them try to beat them with the run, and it still remains to be seen if Hearst really will be the back that most people think he should be.

FINISHED:

So there we have it. Why play the season now that I have got it all wrapped up so nice and neat.... :) ha, ha....they say "Nobody really knows, and on any given Sunday...Thats why they play the games...etc".

OTHER STUFF:

New updates on Cowboys games and shows on Satellite as of 7-6-97 at my website:

"http://www.jps.net/garywm"

COMMENTS:

e-mail me at "garywm@jps.net"

Gary W. Morris

Sr. Software Engineer

USCS International

garywm@jps.net