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Wednesday, August 27, 1997

For Cowboys Super Bowl, missing playoffs possible

By MIKE BALDWIN / The Daily Oklahoman

IRVING, Texas -- Will the Dallas Cowboys return to the Super Bowl? Maybe.

That's fence-straddling at its best. That's what makes the 1997 season so intriguing when diagnosing the Cowboys' chances of playing on Jan. 25 in San Diego. This is a season you could make a case for Dallas winning Super Bowl XXXII or barely making the playoffs.

If several inexperienced players adequately fill starting vacancies, and provide reliable depth, the Cowboys might finish 13-3 or 12-4. That should be good enough for home-field advantage. At worst, it would earn a first-round bye.

But what happens if the young kickers, young linebackers, young defensive linemen and a young center flop? The Cowboys could finish 10-6 or 9-7 and be playing in the wild-card round, an almost impossible road to the Super Bowl.

Injuries, of course, are the great equalizer. If Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith or Deion Sanders are lost for an extended period, just making the playoffs would be a major accomplishment.

Two weeks before the season opener Aug. 31 in Pittsburgh, the best guess is this will be a very good Cowboys team, good enough to win another Super Bowl. The defense won't be as dominant as last season, but the offense should be one of Dallas' best, if not the best, during the Aikman era.

Green Bay is the team to beat. Carolina and San Francisco are legitimate contenders. The season could boil down to a Nov. 23 showdown at Lambeau Field. It's quite likely whoever wins the Cowboys-Packers game four days before Thanksgiving will win the Super Bowl.

The Cowboys don't return 21 starters, as the Packers do. But Green Bay already has lost one of those 21 (Edgar Bennett suffered a season-ending Achilles injury), so the Packers technically return 20. Dallas returns 18.

Give an edge to the Packers when comparing quarterbacks. Brett Favre, the league's MVP the past two years, is part John Elway, part Dan Marino. Favre can make something out of nothing or he can systematically pick apart defenses. Aikman is 11-2 in the playoffs, but Favre is the game's top player.

Curiously, quarterback is one of the few areas where the Packers hold an edge over Dallas. Green Bay has a better front seven on defense, but the Cowboys have the better running back, offensive line and secondary.

Keep in mind that Green Bay hasn't beaten the Cowboys since Bart Starr retired. At least it seems that way. Cheeseheads remind me the game is finally being played at Lambeau Field, but I remind them the Packers are 0-8 against the Cowboys this decade. The last seven losses have been at Texas Stadium, but all seven have been by 10 or more points. Green Bay beating Dallas, even at Lambeau, is not a slam dunk.

The Packers and Cowboys are a notch above Carolina and San Francisco. But the 49ers and Panthers have an advantage: They play in the NFC West. A 5-1 or 6-0 record is feasible against Atlanta, New Orleans and St. Louis. It's not impossible for 'Frisco or Carolina to earn home-field advantage.

Predictions aside, the Cowboys look like a Super Bowl contender. Last year, the Cowboys were never in sync, starting with training camp. A vagabond camp prevented cohesiveness, and it was during camp that Michael Irvin learned he would be suspended for five games. The Cowboys' 1996 season had a stench before the season started.

This year, the 27 days spent in Austin were extremely productive. The only negative was the head coach being arrested at the airport for mistakenly carrying a .38-caliber pistol and the Cowboys had two very productive practices the following day.

Unlike the '96 campaign, the Cowboys look like a team capable of winning a Super Bowl. There's energy, enthusiasm, optimism. Last year's team often appeared disorganized. It showed in September. A 1-3 start draped around the Cowboys like two self-employed models.

One scheduling note: Dallas plays the NFL's toughest schedule based on last year's win-loss records. Six of the first nine games are on the road. If the Cowboys are 6-2 or 7-1 heading into a showdown against the 49ers on Nov. 2 in San Francisco, Dallas is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service.)