Monday, November 24, 1997
Texans think Mexico getting more out of NAFTA
By DEBORAH W. FISHER
Scripps Howard Texas Poll Syndicate
Copyright 1997 Scripps Howard
More Texans favor NAFTA than oppose it, but 40 percent also
believe the free trade agreement has put a lot of Americans out
of jobs, according to The Scripps Howard Texas Poll.
Forty-seven percent of Texans favor the North American Free
Trade Agreement, 29 percent oppose it, and 24 percent are neutral
or don't know.
But Texans clearly think Mexico is getting more out of NAFTA
than the United States or Canada.
Fifty-six percent believe the agreement has significantly helped
Mexico's economy compared with 32 percent who think it has helped
the U.S. economy. Only 25 percent believe it has significantly
helped Canada's economy.
Texas has emerged as an international trade route under NAFTA,
which was passed by Congress in late 1993. The trade pact has
affected the state's roads, employment, education, housing, environment
and other areas.
Questions surrounding NAFTA's impact on the state prompted
Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock to appoint the Senate Interim Committee on
NAFTA. The committee has been holding public hearings to determine
how increased trade has affected the state.
Texas cities bordering Mexico have been hardest hit by job
loss, said state Sen. Carlos Truan, D-Corpus Christi and chairman
of the interim committee. For example, El Paso has lost nearly
7,000 jobs due to NAFTA-related layoffs since the trade agreement
went into effect, he said.
"Although NAFTA has created a net gain in Texas jobs,
that is little consolation to the family breadwinner who loses
a job," Truan said.
Forty percent of Texans agree that the free trade agreement
has put a lot of Americans out of work and 32 percent disagree.
Twenty-five percent either don't know or haven't thought about
NAFTA and job losses. Some researchers say NAFTA has cost American
jobs, but they also say Texans are probably more supportive than
residents in other states because they understand Mexico.
"In many ways, Texas has received some of the most benefits
as well as some of the most negative impact," said Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda,
director of the North American Integration and Development Center
at the University of California-Los Angeles. "In face of
both trends, positive and negative, that they are still supportive
of NAFTA is significant."
The strongest NAFTA support in Texas comes from Hispanics and
Texans in their thirties. Fifty-two percent of Hispanics favor
NAFTA compared with 45 percent of Anglos and 47 percent of blacks.
And 56 percent of those between 30-39 favor the agreement compared
with 33 percent in the 60-94 age group.
Hinojosa-Ojeda's studies in conjunction with the William C.
Velasquez Institute show 91,000 jobs nationwide have been lost
to NAFTA since the agreement went into effect in 1994.
The results have been used to try to secure more money for
retraining and other programs to help people and communities hurt
by NAFTA, he said.
The perceptions nationwide about how well NAFTA is working
for Americans can be important in the political process, Hinojosa-Ojeda
said.
Earlier this month, President Clinton failed to gain fast-track
trade negotiating powers from Congress - an authority given every
president since fast track was established. Fast-track powers
would have given Clinton authority to negotiate trade agreements
that Congress could only approve or reject but not alter.
Many attribute that failure to Americans' feelings about NAFTA.
While more Texans favor than oppose NAFTA, they are split over
how much the trade agreement has helped the U.S. economy. Thirty-two
percent agree that NAFTA has helped the economy, while 34 percent
think it has not. Almost an equal number - 31 percent - have not
thought about NAFTA's effect or don't know.
In the fall 1993 Texas Poll, before NAFTA went into effect,
Texans were similarly divided over their expectations of the agreement.
Thirty-eight percent believed NAFTA would significantly help the
U.S. economy, 37 percent believed it wouldn't and 25 percent didn't
know.
Texans are more united in how Mexico has fared under the agreement,
with 56 percent saying NAFTA has significantly helped the Mexican
economy and 13 percent saying it hasn't.
That may relate to what happened when the free trade agreement
was passed, Hinojosa-Ojeda said.
Mexico opened itself a lot more under NAFTA, lowering its tariffs,
than the United States, he said. U.S. tariffs already were low,
making it easy for Mexican producers to sell into the United States.
"The Mexicans gave options to companies who wanted to
produce in Mexico and sell in Mexico. It was really about selling
to Mexican markets," Hinojosa-Ojeda said.
Texans understand the effects of NAFTA better than residents
in other states because of their close ties to Mexico, said Elsie
Echeverri-Carroll, head of the economic development program of
the Bureau of Business Research at the University of Texas Graduate
School of Business.
The fact that younger Texans favor the agreement over older
Texans reflects different attitudes between generations about
the workplace, she said.
For example, she said, people in their thirties are more likely
to be connected to competitive industries, such as high-tech.
"That's an industry that understands to be competitive,
you have to be constantly innovating, constantly upgrading skills,
constantly being a better manufacturer.
"You cannot stay static and say, 'Protect us because we
have done this all of our lives'," she said. "There
is no doubt that people will be hurt by NAFTA. It takes time for
people to move from one sector of the economy to another and it
also means retraining."
The poll showed little difference in how Texas Democrats and
Republicans viewed NAFTA, with 51 percent of Republicans favoring
the agreement and 47 percent of Democrats.
The Texas Poll was conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 7 for Scripps Howard
by the Office of Survey Research at the University of Texas. The
sample of 1,000 adult Texans has a margin of error of plus or
minus 3 percentage points.
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